‘A devastating blow’: What Danielle Smith fears Justin Trudeau might do

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life but that hasn’t dampened his government’s zeal to push forward yet another scheme to slay climate change. In what appears to be an unprecedented move of economic self-sabotage by a national government, Trudeau aims to impose a ceiling on oil and gas emissions in Canada.

The feds deny their new emissions framework (requiring the industry to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 35 to 38 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030) will cap oil and gas production in Canada. But a cadre of heavyweights — experts at the Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte, and S&P Global — have taken a close look at what’s on offer and disagree.

These experts see the feds’ proposed emissions cap as a de facto oil and gas production cap. And if the cap is imposed, Canadians should expect massive job losses and billions drained from our country’s economy.

“A big emissions cap would be a devastating blow,” asserts Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, “which is why we (the Alberta government) launched a multimillion-dollar campaign against it.”

Smith isn’t waiting around to see the outcome of Liberal caucus hand-wringing on leadership; she’s pushing back against Ottawa’s constitutional overreach and an economically misguided policy that targets a single sector: oil and gas.

Critics accuse Smith of pandering to her United Conservative Party (UCP) base in advance of her own leadership review in early November. Smith chuffs at the accusation. “What did I get elected on?” she asks rhetorically: “The Sovereignty Act. Pushing back against Ottawa. Keeping them in their lane and standing up for our energy sector.”

And if Trudeau thinks that’s going to stop after her leadership review, he’d be wise to think again. “I’m going to keep coming at them as long as they keep coming at us,” she declares. “They need to scrap the cap. They need to end their aspirations to get to net zero in our electricity grid.”

Her government is investing $7-million in a “Scrap the Cap” campaign — TV ads, online video, print and social media ads — to warn of the economic price to be paid, not just by Albertans but by all Canadians, if the feds legislate this cap.

“What we want is for them (the federal government) to scrap the cap altogether. That’s why we launched the campaign now,” the premier explains in a recent telephone conversation. “There’s a real danger that in the dying days of their administration, that they’re going to do something foolish that harms the entire Canadian economy. And we’re hoping that all of the MPs see that, and that their constituents see that, and they join us in this campaign.”

There’s no panic in Smith’s voice; she sounds resolute and matter-of-fact. I’m catching up with her as the UCP caucus prepares for next week’s opening of the fall legislative session in Alberta. Government MLAs have been meeting in Lethbridge to talk through the legislative agenda, Question Period strategy and all that, she explains, and in the evenings, they’ve been door knocking.

The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (known as COP 29) could well be the final international climate platform for the Trudeau Liberals. In 2015, I attended COP 21 in Paris to share viewpoints of Albertans on energy transition; the Liberals had just been elected in Ottawa and the NDP in Alberta and I vividly recall their strutting announcements. It isn’t inconceivable Trudeau’s ministers will be tempted to use COP 29 as a platform to trot out yet more “unprecedented” and “bold” climate action.

“They always do this when they go into an international conference and want to show off their environmental credibility to a particular group of eco-activists,” Smith reports. “It’s almost like they’re in some bidding war to cause the most damage to the Canadian economy,” she elaborates, with a hint of impatience, “and they somehow think that that gives them credibility with the environmental activists who show up there.”

Naheed Nenshi, crowned leader of the provincial NDP in Alberta this June (but not yet elected as an MLA), is critical of the Smith government’s decision to launch the “Scrap the Cap” campaign. You fix the problem with Ottawa by “going to the table,” he argues. It’s a familiar trope but honestly, I wonder aloud, how did that strategy work out for his predecessor, Rachel Notley?

“I just don’t think that he understands the history of his own party,” Smith observes. “So — an emissions cap, an early phaseout of coal that cost billions of dollars, and a very unpopular carbon tax — that was what they (the provincial NDP) put on the table to try to buy some peace with Ottawa. And, what did we see happen?” she asks. “Cancellation of Energy East, cancellation of Northern Gateway, cancellation of Keystone XL, cancellation of Tech Frontier Mine, $150 billion worth of lost investment.”

“That’s what happens when you try to play nice with an Ottawa that wants to kill your industry,” she continues. “They take whatever you give them and then they go a step further.”

It’s a ghoulish time in politics, and not just in Canada. With all this pressure on Trudeau, does the premier worry he may lash out at Alberta?

“Politicians have two choices when they’re cornered and need support. They either accept it, exit gracefully, and then let the party that they lead pick up the pieces afterwards,” Smith responds. “We haven’t seen any of that,” she quips, then continues: “The other option is to go for broke and to just say, ‘You know what? I’m going to try to pass what I can and cause as much damage as I can on my way out, because then it’s the problem for the next guy.’”

The second choice is reckless, but it’s one Smith fears because Trudeau’s government has shown such disdain for the Canadian constitution and its division of powers, even disdain for our energy sector, she laments.

Smith’s asking the feds, politely but firmly, not to impose their de facto production cap. Her government’s aspiration is to achieve emissions reduction with technology and exports. Trudeau’s proposed cap will result in a loss of revenues to provincial and federal coffers, and that directly impacts consumers. “The Conference Board of Canada is saying it would cost regular families $419 per month,” the premier warns.

“Think about lower-income families,” Smith reflects, “that’s the thing I find so shocking, is not even having any sensitivity to the impact their decisions will have on real people.”

“The rest of the world recalibrated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after the turmoil in the Middle East, after the inflation crisis and the affordability crisis,” the premier explains. But in their quest to be seen as climate change trailblazers, the Trudeau government remains “absolutely tone-deaf to what is happening in the real lives of real people.”

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